NFL · resolved market
Spread: TEN (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6e8575f0df330b3c9342dae5a89549dc385df2b058ec8339d05e0f459bbe534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TENof TEN, SF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd619…c461backed TEN | 55c | 1,592$876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.46 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked SF | 45c | 1,339$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.87 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…0807backed SF | 45c | 570$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed SF | 63c | 372.84$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed TEN | 48c | 274.14$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.23 | 225 | 50.7%114 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…a534backed TEN | 56c | 160.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x776f…32b7backed TEN | 48c | 120.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked TEN | 49c | 79.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed TEN | 47c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed TEN | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked SF | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed TEN | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed SF | 52c | 34.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed TEN | 48c | 21.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked SF | 49c | 20.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TEN (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Titans (-4.5)Titans won
- Spread: TEN (-2.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-3.5)TEN won
- Spread: TEN (-6.5)SF won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 37.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 38.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 39.5Under won
- TEN vs. SF: O/U 40.5Under won
- Titans vs. 49ersTitans won
- Titans vs. 49ers: 1H MoneylineTitans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.