Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3286f89e21af780f451cb654c59aa11d1d8ad25dc573deec411c9e89a2227016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,812
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 52c | 900$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 45c | 451.3$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.83 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 65c | 374.07$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 233.17$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 47c | 232.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 225.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 39c | 192.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 56c | 183.86$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.9 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 179.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 50c | 162.49$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 47c | 160.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 151.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 116.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 114.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1516…9f4cbacked Yes | 65c | 111.66$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 47c | 106.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 52c | 94.34$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 65c | 92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 68.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…fc9bbacked No | 47c | 66.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 35c | 61.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 42c | 61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…eed2backed No | 37c | 59.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 46c | 48.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 48.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 28c | 42.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 50c | 42.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…7a3ebacked Yes | 78c | 41.58$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…b443backed Yes | 61c | 40.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 58c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 61c | 36.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 52c | 36.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556b…4e33backed No | 46c | 34.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -7.1wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 58c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 41c | 31.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8b…b544backed No | 44c | 31.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 30.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 64c | 30.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1d…b7cabacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 53c | 29.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 54c | 27.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 50c | 26.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 50c | 26.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 43c | 23.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d82…b4b8backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f5…5ac4backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed Yes | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.