Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd265ed6a0fb61d0135b242e39febb485a1e7d3f34388e8197a48d103fec8db62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,542
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,542 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 30c | 399.02$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.02 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 27c | 394.12$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 320.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 193.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 193.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 172$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 150.73$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…f019backed Yes | 13c | 89.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 73c | 84.17$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 83.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 80.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 28c | 77.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 70.36$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 59.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca28…ceb2backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 136 | 37.5%51 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb1…a2d2backed Yes | 32c | 47.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 30c | 46.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 27c | 45.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 44.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 27c | 39.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6012…900fbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 78c | 30.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 28.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 64c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 22.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 79c | 20.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 229 | 59.8%137 W · 92 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 76c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77a4…c217backed No | 72c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on August 14?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.