Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3297a7a32f89c2f91c81ac555a9228277c82ceac6813502d65f6ec3d3a31e064
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 564.74$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 76c | 258.92$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 239.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 71c | 202.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.04 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 34c | 192.24$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 191$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 44c | 172.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 11c | 165.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 138.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 41c | 133.71$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 131.94$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 119.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 72c | 111.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 109.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 104.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 103.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb6…ada8backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 33c | 99.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 25c | 96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 89.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 82.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 79.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 44c | 78.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.37 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 76.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 74.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 23c | 74.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked Yes | 29c | 70.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 75c | 59.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 56.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 30c | 51.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 59c | 47.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 41.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 73c | 40.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed No | 56c | 34.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 33.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 64c | 31.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 65c | 21.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda8d…9377backed No | 74c | 20.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…26aabacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 79c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 62c | 19.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 15.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 14.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.