Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba0f3617b51260fa10c60db41aabcc97460749866496b87a82e2b996854c35b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 3c | 717.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 609.47$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 43c | 586.81$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 35c | 443.01$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.42 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 12c | 250$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 30c | 201$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 191$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 164.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 158.26$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 67c | 149.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.97 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…946fbacked Yes | 33c | 136.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 65c | 132$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 123.27$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 123.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 122.13$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 119.29$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 116.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 53c | 107$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 70c | 106$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.09 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 31c | 105$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 60c | 103.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 45c | 99.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…f5c2backed Yes | 35c | 92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 86.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 35c | 85.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 32c | 79.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 72c | 79.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 55c | 73.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 69.84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 77c | 69.09$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…aac7backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 87 | 26.4%23 W · 64 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 56.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 34c | 55.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked No | 31c | 50.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…737cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…f6a5backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 49.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 69c | 48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 47.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 45.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 35c | 44.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 38c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 60c | 39.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 62c | 35.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 53c | 27.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 53c | 25.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 66c | 25.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…6b2bbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 23.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…a400backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80a…6163backed Yes | 79c | 12.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.