South American Leagues · resolved market
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3298bc2429c7a801ce9d7a39e4a2d0d917f08ac5bfec4040dcd52918299e9f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 3,460$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.63 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 33c | 1,640$541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.8 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…2408backed Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 44c | 608.48$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.83 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 50c | 412.53$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 43c | 234.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.48 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 59c | 170.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 359 | 58.8%211 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 38c | 130.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…54d2backed Over | 42c | 120$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…5bbbbacked Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 52c | 89.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed Under | 39c | 86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Over | 61c | 86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe579…ba5ebacked Over | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +241.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Over | 62c | 42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked Under | 38c | 42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 36c | 40.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 62c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…98edbacked Under | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 37c | 28.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 58c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed Under | 39c | 27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Over | 61c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe1…a6ebbacked Over | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x874d…c888backed Under | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 43cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc484…4123backed Over | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 63c | 18.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 1.5this page
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 2.5Under won
- CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CA Belgrano: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.