Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs. Nigma Galaxy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32b93ec4d029c0c00ac24dbaed10e0213d59d277f76b758a49f70bca2f8d6ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Aurora, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Aurora | 6c | 9,049$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.65 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 5,382$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,874.71 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…4f82backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 5,321$2,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,894.69 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Aurora | 61c | 4,966$3,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.47 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…3e05backed Aurora | 54c | 4,251$2,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,294.33 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 2,873$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,779.05 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7116…b487backed Aurora | 61c | 2,219$1,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,345.19 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Aurora | 54c | 2,153$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170.21 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b5…6128backed Aurora | 78c | 1,890$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.5 | 180 | 75%135 W · 45 L | +18.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 1,562$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.24 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Aurora | 66c | 1,515$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,317$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$856.6 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.35 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…c460backed Nigma Galaxy | 35c | 1,131$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.15 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Nigma Galaxy | 24c | 1,108$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 1,081$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.83 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Aurora | 60c | 1,067$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.2 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 1,056$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.27 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Aurora | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Aurora | 66c | 898.46$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.98 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 825.97$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.97 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Aurora | 69c | 769.92$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.49 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Aurora | 68c | 733.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 34c | 717.41$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Aurora | 58c | 703.88$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.93 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 697.24$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 658.82$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…d936backed Nigma Galaxy | 41c | 646.1$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Aurora | 59c | 640$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.8 | 338 | 50.9%172 W · 166 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Nigma Galaxy | 39c | 600$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 600$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aurora | 77c | 590.46$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.93 | 557 | 51.7%288 W · 269 L | +16.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb6…533abacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Aurora | 59c | 525.41$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.48 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 119 | 60.5%72 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 483.04$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 447.56$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.6 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Aurora | 68c | 437.3$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.84 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Nigma Galaxy | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 38c | 399$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.38 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Aurora | 71c | 370$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.2 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Aurora | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Aurora | 55c | 290.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 162 | 32.7%53 W · 109 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…2c85backed Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 280$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 238.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.15 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Nigma Galaxy | 32c | 220.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.34 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed Aurora | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 33c | 190.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Aurora | 62c | 174.84$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.35 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Nigma Galaxy | 37c | 173.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.47 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 165$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +299.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Aurora | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed Aurora | 63c | 158.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…27bfbacked Aurora | 63c | 106.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…312dbacked Aurora | 68c | 103.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Aurora | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…c0dabacked Nigma Galaxy | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Aurora | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Aurora | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 54c | 92.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Nigma Galaxy | 21c | 89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Aurora | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5131…cd65backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859b…3d8bbacked Aurora | 71c | 67.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…ae6ebacked Aurora | 79c | 61.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…79bfbacked Nigma Galaxy | 47c | 55.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Nigma Galaxy | 40c | 49.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…fe26backed Aurora | 67c | 47.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…64cfbacked Aurora | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Aurora | 47c | 39.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf815…4f3ebacked Aurora | 71c | 38.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 274 | 66.4%182 W · 92 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Aurora | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e24…49e4backed Nigma Galaxy | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…21a8backed Aurora | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcd…be40backed Aurora | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec91…96ffbacked Aurora | 79c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Aurora | 57c | 25.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…998abacked Aurora | 76c | 22.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.