Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x32c088dfd600f97dbd4bc1a30931eb98bbcf50bde57dcce6a3dcf20bf7c057e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 10c | 2,435$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed No | 74c | 2,241$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.15 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,753$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 13c | 1,320$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.49 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 616.1$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.99 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…9044backed Yes | 59c | 513.69$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.61 | 89 | 20.2%18 W · 71 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 22c | 500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 55c | 484.2$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.05 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 468.39$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 42c | 457.46$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.96 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 11c | 408.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 11c | 404.77$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 336.04$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 287.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 68c | 257.52$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.51 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 241.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 13c | 235$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 232.51$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 11c | 226.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 207.88$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 194.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 20c | 183.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 14c | 158$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 17c | 156.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 72c | 145.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 144.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…9642backed Yes | 11c | 133.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 124.79$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 15c | 118.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 16c | 109.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 92.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 18c | 92.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 32c | 92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 42c | 88.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 64c | 84.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 80.92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 56c | 78.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 78.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 24c | 72.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 38c | 69.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 22c | 69.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 60.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 69c | 56.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…ac84backed No | 78c | 53.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f45…db24backed No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 47.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 32c | 41.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 77c | 40.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked No | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…b03cbacked No | 56c | 31.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…40aebacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 71c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…cb7cbacked No | 74c | 20.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 79c | 19.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 17.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671b…821cbacked No | 76c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9d…558bbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.