Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7ccafe9040726d029480c05f6d6d2f73e01a1e2878c7401d79c8e9de700b2d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,219
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 79c | 2,314$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.22 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 997.68$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.63 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 925.58$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 644.94$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.33 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 39c | 477.53$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.05 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 46c | 456.34$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 40c | 440.64$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.84 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 48c | 377$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.81 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 3c | 358.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 352$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 312.15$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.6 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 13c | 310.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 285.4$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 33c | 266.08$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 26c | 232.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 55c | 206$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 36c | 187.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 57c | 177.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 26c | 170.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 166.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.67 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…281bbacked No | 51c | 163.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.44 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 62c | 156.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed No | 13c | 155.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 68c | 146.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 58c | 145.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 143$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 51c | 142.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef49…d27bbacked Yes | 40c | 140$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 216 | 51.9%112 W · 104 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 139.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.94 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 56c | 135$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 71c | 130$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 128.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 25c | 122.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 121.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 36c | 109.84$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3040…55cebacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 36c | 99.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 97.59$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 31c | 88.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 85.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked No | 62c | 80$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 79.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 39c | 75.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.33 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 66c | 71.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 66.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 70c | 63.65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 23c | 63.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 71c | 61.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 67c | 60.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 56.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 47c | 56.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 56c | 56.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 56c | 54.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 39c | 53.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 40c | 52.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 65c | 52.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x823d…2db3backed No | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 49.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 58c | 49.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 30c | 48.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 49c | 47.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae7…2b0dbacked Yes | 36c | 46.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 73c | 46.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked No | 70c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 44.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 69c | 43.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 67c | 43.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 32c | 42.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 44c | 41.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 61c | 40.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 37c | 40.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae4…5c60backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 69c | 39.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 56c | 38.58$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 69c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 68c | 35.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 65c | 34.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 62c | 34.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 38c | 34.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 37c | 33.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 30.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 64c | 30.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 34c | 29.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 69c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 63c | 28.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 80c | 28.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 76c | 25.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 43c | 23.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.