Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cdf5fcdbdda9fcfb686115c8b716d6ca3b8983967dc8fc6d8972c7ad64ef879
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x527f…4c41backed Yes | 37c | 1,716$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 14c | 845.46$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.54 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 539.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 503.68$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 56c | 476.32$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 464.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 444.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 8c | 421.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 428 | 20.1%86 W · 342 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 3c | 378.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 360.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 352$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.21 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…9907backed Yes | 10c | 349.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 6c | 325.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 36c | 322.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 67c | 316.68$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be7…ad70backed Yes | 4c | 308.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 134 | 11.9%16 W · 118 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…3c9dbacked Yes | 39c | 305$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 36c | 284.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 281.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 20c | 265.37$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 221.42$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 49c | 218.69$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 217.53$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 34c | 208$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.22 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 206.92$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.08 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 25c | 200.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 42c | 179.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 177.83$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…94b2backed Yes | 14c | 162.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 162.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 139.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 136.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 34c | 132.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 127.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 119.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 67c | 108.28$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 10c | 105.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 105.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 64c | 101.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 97.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd8…a3a5backed Yes | 37c | 97.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 94.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 19c | 88.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 88.31$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 42c | 84.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 82.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 80.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 67c | 77.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x320e…9f45backed Yes | 16c | 76.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 71.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 32c | 68.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 61.68$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 65c | 59.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 75c | 58.46$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…0e6dbacked No | 60c | 58.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 57.08$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 63c | 57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 36c | 55.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 52.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 64c | 52.36$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…e66dbacked Yes | 32c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -6.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bb…1b2fbacked Yes | 33c | 47.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 77c | 45.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 45c | 44.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 62c | 43.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccb6…e094backed Yes | 39c | 42.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 70c | 40.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 72c | 40.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 29c | 39.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 39.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 37.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 36.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…4753backed No | 64c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 76c | 35.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…7e3ebacked Yes | 45c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 70c | 31.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 48c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 48c | 28.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x321e…b542backed Yes | 57c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 62c | 24.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 45c | 22.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on July 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 93°F or below on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 100-101°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on July 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on July 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.