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Golf · resolved market

Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 BMW Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Golfevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,857

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,947 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Golf is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Golf
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2cb…ad46backed Yes7c4,965$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.12537.5%4 W · 49 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+80.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked No66c4,932$3,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.41637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27d2…b0f8backed Yes18c4,185$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-52.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f72…8d01backed Yes55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.991338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578e…c3c0backed Yes13c1,941$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.58120%0 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Yes15c1,890$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.68650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc67b…4271backed Yes42c1,834$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.0530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes48c1,808$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.392218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c1,741$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.433432.4%11 W · 23 L+0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1610…c11abacked Yes8c1,388$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb242…4312backed Yes8c1,184$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes9c1,020$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.067441.9%31 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No69c941.39$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.436543.1%28 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes39c931.49$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.9425749.4%127 W · 130 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1c…7c29backed Yes13c920$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x287c…d68fbacked Yes15c724.53$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+90.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked No73c718.9$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.19425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-65.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No76c681.79$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.918646.2%86 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0972…9d1ebacked Yes53c676.69$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Yes9c570$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50387.9%3 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-25.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked No46c555.89$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.035030%15 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77f1…91bdbacked Yes14c516$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.07110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes12c420$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.523145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4840…be60backed Yes14c403.02$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81bb…f1f9backed Yes43c337.5$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.6430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…3be4backed Yes19c258.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-70.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No79c250$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Yes18c231.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.19728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick13cpaid+78%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb993…61febacked Yes24c199$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes63c174.35$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108319.3%16 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-37%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No75c155.26$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.245133.3%17 W · 34 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4617…c683backed Yes56c124.46$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+196.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa802…4575backed Yes20c100.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5960…d692backed Yes55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.52425%6 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82c2…2bb3backed Yes22c97.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.28837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid-17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No61c81.09$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.291050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b10…ffd3backed Yes51c76.84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.99911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick30cpaid-80.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No79c70$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2f5…24adbacked Yes61c67.88$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9f…65ffbacked Yes17c67.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-67.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e3…e5b3backed Yes31c64.72$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x646e…294dbacked Yes52c38.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x40a7…ecb7backed No73c37.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.045666.1%37 W · 19 L+11.0wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+122.2%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No61c30.18$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.662100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Golf and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.