Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33236441fc577487c83274e7c7a60ad215a22b16ef135a8ba39334ceae79b9de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 2c | 802.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 740.05$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 28c | 665.78$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.15 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 4c | 534.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.71 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 2c | 468.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 7c | 363.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.1 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 351.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 79c | 309.1$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 16c | 303.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.33 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 10c | 233.28$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 7c | 208.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.66 | 203 | 27.1%55 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.92 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 29c | 199.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.81 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 27c | 179.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.07 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked No | 50c | 172.83$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 34c | 159$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 62c | 158.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.58 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66c…7c32backed Yes | 68c | 157.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 36c | 141.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed No | 34c | 120.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.59 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 107.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 63c | 95.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 20c | 94.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 34c | 92.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.66 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 73c | 80.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 74c | 71.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 22c | 67.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.94 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 36c | 59.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd926…e9cebacked No | 56c | 55.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 41c | 54.63$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 31c | 53.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 50.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 73c | 49.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 42c | 47.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 42.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf02…ee21backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 58c | 34.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 44c | 30.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 68c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…bf4abacked Yes | 52c | 28.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 66c | 26.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…e6bcbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 48c | 24.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…ebe0backed Yes | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…813abacked Yes | 68c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 64c | 21.62$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.