Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7524870d5d1d3a2b27006fd53a007e91375c5c0ca3c42158e6b27161bd43222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 37c | 887.44$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.22 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 840.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 339.78$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 16c | 304.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 40c | 279.38$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 7c | 245.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 17c | 241.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 60c | 232.15$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 8c | 229.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 228$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 226.73$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 78c | 200.73$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 40c | 174.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 58c | 173.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 35c | 125.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 58c | 123.01$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 27c | 115.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 106.65$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 65c | 106.2$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 11c | 94.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +223.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 85.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 63c | 79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 74.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 71.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 19c | 70.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 70$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 66c | 64.53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c1…da4bbacked Yes | 45c | 43.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 65c | 42.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 41.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 37.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b72…ec52backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 36.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 32.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 63c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 66c | 31.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 62c | 31.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 80c | 28.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 67c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…58febacked No | 66c | 22.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 65 | 64.6%42 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 21.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 61c | 20.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3959…c30abacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 62c | 17.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 72c | 15.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.