Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8f9e92c2bae1b36f18067ae7a0dd3815f5e70ad68a7845f0e3768ea54ba8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,814
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,814 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 1c | 2,826$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…4b60backed Yes | 45c | 1,121$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.56 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 596.09$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…6400backed Yes | 38c | 516.79$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.69 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 13c | 333.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 315.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.46 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 79c | 237.83$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 64c | 210.88$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 174.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 157.94$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 143.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 73c | 130.14$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 8c | 129.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1e…862ebacked Yes | 20c | 126.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -10.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 26c | 125.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 31c | 124.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 116.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…fb4dbacked Yes | 27c | 112.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 20c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 19c | 104.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 18c | 99.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…7456backed Yes | 24c | 91.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 161 | 26.1%42 W · 119 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 28c | 88.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 25c | 83.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 81.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 14c | 80.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 78.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…dd98backed Yes | 47c | 75.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed Yes | 40c | 73.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 34c | 70.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6311…fb18backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 51c | 67.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 61.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 54c | 60.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.46 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 56.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 73c | 55.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 55.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 52c | 51.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 39c | 49.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 30c | 48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed No | 57c | 45.6$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 57c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 44.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 45c | 43.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Yes | 69c | 43.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 66cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 29c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 39.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…afe1backed Yes | 65c | 38.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 36.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 38c | 35.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 32.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 77c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…91a5backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 54c | 28.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 25.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 73c | 24.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 74c | 23.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 21.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 20.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 55c | 19.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 79c | 18.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 213 | 70.9%151 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 16.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 16.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C or higher on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.