MLB · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3323e95f5fd7cd947ad0bef6699f7d5214b0e3c9cfd511bb2d2c39c96d505b50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- St. Louis Cardinalsof Los Angeles Dodgers, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,651
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,651 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 27c | 814.83$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 567.07$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 47c | 448.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 69c | 432.87$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6672…9ea3backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 404.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 329.69$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.14 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 307.84$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 212.55$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 212.5$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.44 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 201.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 195.2$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 186.17$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 164.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 146$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 137.41$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 134$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 128.57$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 23c | 127$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 76c | 105.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 87.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 22c | 82.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 69.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 60c | 68.57$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 67.96$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 58.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 49.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 215 | 54.9%118 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…7178backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 48c | 34.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Los Angeles Dodgers | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed St. Louis Cardinals | 70c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.