Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33295ab647fd588bffc21fc3e32961293f0d4b87131358a6b957089f1af83d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,856
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,856 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 54c | 900$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.92 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 35c | 806.77$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.67 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 389.66$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.62 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 21c | 310.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 309.4$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 283.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 236.66$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 26c | 234.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 228.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 33c | 224.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.7 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 7c | 189.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 170.25$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 73c | 157.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 65c | 150.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 18c | 148.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.89 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2442…e50bbacked Yes | 79c | 145.65$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 17c | 135.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 128$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 75c | 121.79$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 15c | 116.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 13c | 107.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.57 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 74c | 107.71$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 98.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 87.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 61c | 81.02$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 79.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 78.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 68c | 77.33$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.88 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 20c | 72.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.06 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 79c | 69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 25c | 68.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 43c | 62.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 23c | 61.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 60.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 67c | 60.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 26c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 34c | 57.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 31c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 33c | 56.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 71c | 52.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 44c | 46.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed Yes | 26c | 46.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 34c | 41.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 65c | 41.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 79c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…d9d1backed Yes | 26c | 39.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 73c | 39.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 35.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 70c | 32.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0450…bd51backed No | 74c | 32.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 28.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 28.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 72c | 27.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 26.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 23.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 20.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…ccddbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 70c | 19.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 73c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.