Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x161eebb57a47697e5afc73e8a21cc0142c0a175e4f9dcffd1a933d8707bb3b52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed Yes | 78c | 1,273$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.55 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 8c | 653.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 610.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 8c | 577.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.48 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 5c | 421.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.94 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 20c | 381.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 7c | 363.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.15 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 354.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…f36fbacked Yes | 7c | 296.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 278.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 4c | 272.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.87 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 27c | 262.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.18 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 230.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.97 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 219.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.52 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 6c | 215$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1352…2f95backed No | 50c | 205.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 12c | 201.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 190.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.32 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 180.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…478abacked Yes | 7c | 169.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.16 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 156.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 15c | 132.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.91 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 20c | 128.18$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 22c | 116.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.48 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 47c | 110.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 15c | 107$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 19c | 107$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 37c | 100.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.3 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.37 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 76c | 98.15$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 14c | 89.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 81.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 72.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 15c | 67.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 59.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d69…9f70backed Yes | 25c | 54.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.92 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 28c | 49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 47.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 59c | 47.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 69c | 34.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 48c | 29.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed No | 76c | 28.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 74c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 77c | 25.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed Yes | 49c | 22.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or higher on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.