Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3330f78fb3735eef9c18f612645cf2dc78cf871c4777de08764e950645360e83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Liquid, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,405
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,405 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Team Liquid | 39c | 2,500$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 2,183$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.8 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…57e0backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 1,860$1,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.2 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe548…a9febacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 1,751$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.01 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94cb…64e3backed Team Liquid | 37c | 1,500$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 188 | 30.9%58 W · 130 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Liquid | 37c | 1,307$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.46 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e4f6backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 1,068$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.45 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…d931backed Team Liquid | 37c | 1,040$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.8 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…2fe1backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 767.14$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 554.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.79 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Team Liquid | 34c | 512$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Team Liquid | 36c | 499.97$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 390.1$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc70…8be9backed Xtreme Gaming | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 253 | 54.5%138 W · 115 L | +13.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Team Liquid | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9db8…2effbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 260.63$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 229.12$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.48 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6281…e326backed Team Liquid | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Liquid | 37c | 154.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7947…ac07backed Team Liquid | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8649…ba57backed Team Liquid | 42c | 126.4$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ef…97b2backed Team Liquid | 40c | 120$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team Liquid | 40c | 119.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb4…da4fbacked Team Liquid | 37c | 106.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 75 | 66.7%50 W · 25 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 101.63$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Liquid | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Team Liquid | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 98.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 174 | 44.8%78 W · 96 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 96.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.43 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…3336backed Team Liquid | 36c | 91.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Liquid | 37c | 77.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Xtreme Gaming | 66c | 75.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 72.5$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Liquid | 37c | 72.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…b461backed Team Liquid | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Xtreme Gaming | 61c | 61.92$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab05…52e9backed Team Liquid | 39c | 61.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 174 | 48.9%85 W · 89 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 48.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked Xtreme Gaming | 59c | 42.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…443bbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…b781backed Team Liquid | 36c | 28.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 27.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 23.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee8f…9f44backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 23.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 65c | 15.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15d6…2179backed Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup SurvivalTeam Liquid won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.