Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3357356f673e7f165fc2a20e0acc74e853b38816ae93975cceff6af8e56a2c4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc141…fdd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 1,361$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 1,039$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 14c | 919$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.66 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…943ebacked Yes | 5c | 829.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +139.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…af26backed Yes | 18c | 802.49$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 15c | 799.99$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2a…967bbacked Yes | 7c | 787.35$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 2c | 616.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 5c | 549.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 4c | 507.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 8c | 462.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 294.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 8c | 287.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 9c | 253.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 13c | 230.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 17c | 212.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 11c | 173.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 163.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…6deabacked Yes | 10c | 157.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 9c | 142.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 10c | 133.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 18c | 133.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b9f8backed Yes | 12c | 132.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 349 | 22.9%80 W · 269 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 10c | 121.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 15c | 112.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 10c | 104.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 11c | 93.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 14c | 79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 14c | 76.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40c8…da0fbacked Yes | 17c | 73.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 16c | 73.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 80c | 20.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3742…b912backed No | 79c | 13.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.