Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x611f9510020c32e018cb6ad11691720f5af550dbb6ca8c19150fa3cd725b9f11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 154 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 6,896$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 1c | 4,055$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 1c | 1,586$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 11c | 1,239$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.93 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 57c | 1,100$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.83 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2304…989dbacked No | 2c | 822.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…c6fbbacked No | 68c | 793.17$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.28 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 34c | 778.12$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.56 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 56c | 641.5$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.09 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 58c | 475.95$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.37 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 38c | 461.32$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 3c | 449.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…0529backed Yes | 73c | 448.27$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.02 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…719abacked Yes | 63c | 446.22$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa776…62a0backed Yes | 68c | 443.28$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 57c | 438.35$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.35 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 41c | 421.34$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.71 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 47c | 411.34$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 332$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 24c | 308.75$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 290.36$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 48c | 275.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.16 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 30c | 244.52$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 36c | 230.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 226.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 218.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 47c | 211.91$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 205.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 205.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 201$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf1…294fbacked Yes | 71c | 191.27$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.93 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 32c | 185.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 38c | 178.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.06 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 38c | 178$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 169.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 40c | 159.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.56 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9a…7f89backed No | 46c | 158.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 35c | 142.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 36c | 141.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9933…db7dbacked Yes | 35c | 140.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.96 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 35c | 133$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 126.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 46c | 124.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 62c | 120.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…73e9backed Yes | 50c | 120.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9670…6852backed Yes | 72c | 117.65$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 66c | 113.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 112$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 63c | 110.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 109.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80e…4d24backed Yes | 74c | 108.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 44c | 106.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 105$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 65c | 99.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.07 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 96.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.3 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…1cefbacked No | 65c | 95.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 93.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 14c | 92.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 57c | 92.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.66 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 62c | 89.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.47 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked No | 61c | 82.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 39c | 80.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…19e7backed Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 25c | 73.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 70.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6aa…8484backed Yes | 47c | 67.79$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…deacbacked Yes | 73c | 61.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14fd…50afbacked Yes | 43c | 59.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 63c | 58.12$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed Yes | 40c | 57.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 43c | 57.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 36c | 55.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…007ebacked No | 45c | 55.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 64c | 54.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…e43abacked Yes | 38c | 51.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 51.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 24c | 50.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a19…b2a9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2c…a94cbacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 63c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 35c | 49.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe15d…9507backed Yes | 42c | 47.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3c…63d2backed No | 64c | 47.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 68c | 46.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 44c | 45.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 46c | 44.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb8…3706backed Yes | 40c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed Yes | 42c | 41.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.