Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd12edc1ea13a68238295b5f27de90072b0faba7c1f1c33d7a608467b60876352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 0c | 10,356$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 22c | 1,377$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.61 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed Yes | 20c | 1,100$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 78c | 1,023$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.34 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 693.29$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.57 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed Yes | 20c | 507.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 5c | 470.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 466.12$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.56 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 356.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 78c | 307.76$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.21 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 75c | 302.4$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 17c | 239.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 237.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 221.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 185.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 23c | 173.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…0529backed Yes | 21c | 166.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 132.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…41f8backed Yes | 12c | 126.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed No | 79c | 113.98$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.79 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…defabacked Yes | 18c | 108.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -47%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 22c | 105.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 104.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 19c | 96.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 80c | 91.54$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ca…67d7backed Yes | 21c | 86.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0377…ae31backed Yes | 15c | 81.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 18.6%11 W · 48 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 79c | 77.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 32c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 69.79$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 33c | 58.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 21c | 53.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 21c | 50.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92f…acacbacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 79c | 46.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 32c | 45.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 77c | 42.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 77c | 39.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f8…67c0backed No | 78c | 21.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 66c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 16.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3102…ccb4backed No | 75c | 14.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 64cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x327e…e2a1backed No | 79c | 13.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.