Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6213450f811ed0c986cd718ac8e7351427119af358a8d29150c3e16dc39906e1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 15c | 2,529$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.5 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…05a5backed Yes | 2c | 1,340$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 84 | 26.2%22 W · 62 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…ecdcbacked Yes | 32c | 956.08$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.56 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…cfc6backed Yes | 28c | 864.43$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 43c | 828.77$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.53 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…b638backed Yes | 47c | 721.13$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 450.06$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 72c | 439.09$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.93 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 410$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 395.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 75c | 394.52$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f67…0529backed Yes | 47c | 341.54$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.61 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb541…169dbacked No | 65c | 315.96$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 6c | 302.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 496 | 22.2%110 W · 386 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 10c | 292.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…b569backed No | 63c | 290.79$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…7aecbacked Yes | 24c | 246.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 38c | 244.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 235.39$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 20c | 206.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…b385backed Yes | 10c | 194.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8537…0534backed Yes | 33c | 178$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 27c | 176.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 166$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 164.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 163.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.87 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88f0…a7fdbacked Yes | 11c | 160.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…a2b8backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3007backed Yes | 30c | 144.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 269 | 48.3%130 W · 139 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 143$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes | 12c | 140.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 140.29$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fe…9af6backed Yes | 28c | 133.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 72 | 30.6%22 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 71c | 121.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 14c | 116.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c7…1942backed Yes | 29c | 114.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 69c | 110$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.31 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…cafebacked Yes | 26c | 107.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…b978backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…1ccdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 78c | 95.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 72c | 95.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 24c | 95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…57febacked Yes | 17c | 94.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 40c | 94.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 76c | 89.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 23c | 89.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080a…6030backed Yes | 34c | 89.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 88.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 35c | 85.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 23c | 78.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 44c | 76.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 24c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 72.46$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked No | 70c | 71.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…3d58backed Yes | 35c | 70.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633d…80a2backed Yes | 29c | 68.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 65.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 18c | 64.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 65c | 62.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 26c | 59.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b9…1e0ebacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 58.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…dd8ebacked Yes | 26c | 58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 163 | 48.5%79 W · 84 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5f…c2ebbacked Yes | 37c | 53.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d0…4dffbacked Yes | 27c | 52.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…0648backed No | 76c | 52.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 25c | 50.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abb…9d8fbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 49c | 46.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…5dadbacked Yes | 33c | 42.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…4c0bbacked No | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503f…9a8fbacked No | 79c | 37.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…dfc0backed Yes | 37c | 36.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…7fbebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa626…6778backed No | 72c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…7d9abacked Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 65c | 32.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 63c | 31.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 30.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…097dbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 62c | 27.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 73c | 27.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 21.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 73c | 20.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…bff1backed No | 79c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.