Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33580fb3c7bc753c71d306f77e7033727c8b3155b969601f48ce29b32d4648be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 67c | 3,615$2,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.44 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 40c | 3,170$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.73 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed No | 33c | 3,005$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982 | 71 | 12.7%9 W · 62 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 75c | 1,023$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.24 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 74c | 831.06$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.27 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…fe61backed Yes | 75c | 830.12$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.12 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 800$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 31c | 785.37$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.56 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5e…3e6ebacked Yes | 69c | 720$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked No | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked No | 15c | 305.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked No | 23c | 191.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 38c | 187$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 17c | 160.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked No | 22c | 144.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 65c | 134.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked No | 22c | 133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 55c | 103.31$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.82 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…fa71backed Yes | 69c | 99.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.86 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa644…e875backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes | 66c | 78.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe65…cd92backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1526…f851backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaced…f7f9backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c31…001ebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…bf02backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…05c8backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ea…236abacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…7a15backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…00e3backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae2…8e16backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…ef6ebacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c9…73e1backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd002…59eabacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa08…82b2backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…a0f1backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf20c…98c6backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…b0fbbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfb…9ebabacked Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…0e59backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade4…e91dbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53b6…ddf8backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…1288backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…e257backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ce…b139backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883d…c374backed Yes | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 70c | 41.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ac…be52backed Yes | 66c | 32.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 65c | 24.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Yes | 59c | 17.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 July 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.