Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8e3fba0ea17feb2f8581dc3803581cd0a5ef179ae608119945e580b6b8c851
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $203,588
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 8c | 22,686$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.19 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…e383backed Yes | 3c | 8,926$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.92 | 90 | 4.4%4 W · 86 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 13c | 7,616$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,356$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.28 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 12c | 4,620$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.18 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…d717backed Yes | 9c | 4,240$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.27 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 14cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 4,036$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 2c | 3,791$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 7c | 3,495$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.75 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a14…9b34backed Yes | 2c | 2,697$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76a…9ac8backed Yes | 12c | 2,332$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ad…c163backed Yes | 8c | 1,898$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 10cpaid | +165.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab7…d144backed Yes | 11c | 1,738$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.65 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 3c | 1,591$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 2c | 1,429$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,389$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.92 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 46c | 1,116$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.31 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6799…62cdbacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked Yes | 14c | 931.11$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 49c | 834.49$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 2c | 800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dab…3229backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed Yes | 16c | 585.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 22c | 580.29$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…fe6bbacked Yes | 18c | 555.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +496.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Yes | 12c | 521.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 2c | 507.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87b…1a52backed Yes | 18c | 493.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 10c | 450$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x137f…6689backed No | 69c | 434.51$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.09 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 11c | 415.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…3a81backed Yes | 12c | 389.42$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd859…38c5backed Yes | 10c | 308.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 143 | 7.7%11 W · 132 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 34c | 270$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.66 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x46c8…5894backed Yes | 6c | 263$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…897cbacked Yes | 5c | 252$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Yes | 20c | 234.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 77c | 209.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979f…66acbacked Yes | 21c | 202.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2385…b8e9backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 58c | 198.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…3ac7backed Yes | 14c | 183.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Yes | 65c | 177.44$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…824ebacked Yes | 21c | 153.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 35c | 143.84$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.07 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…e1f9backed Yes | 10c | 99.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14d5…8ba8backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 July 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.