Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9796b3dd13683d7e7daa8864b8c383ad2aa1e35731ded8d94b8fefc11b5382d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,115
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,115 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa709…6c7cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 20c | 3,804$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.87 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…fd86backed Yes | 1c | 3,744$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 6c | 3,520$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.86 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,638$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.45 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…c988backed Yes | 11c | 1,502$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 18cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfde…fa1bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdd…f7afbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9401…ad7fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…7714backed Yes | 11c | 1,500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…e1f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 1,186$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b09…015cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,097$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 13c | 1,000$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 3c | 966.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 955.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf462…e35fbacked Yes | 3c | 930.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a5…ed20backed Yes | 2c | 873.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 3c | 872.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 2c | 805.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 11c | 764.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 11c | 612.55$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +526.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Yes | 4c | 573.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 504.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9343…3f72backed Yes | 13c | 495.9$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 67c | 400$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked Yes | 12c | 372.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 20c | 314.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Yes | 8c | 299.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b1…f4bbbacked No | 66c | 283.35$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Yes | 23c | 281.79$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…fa71backed Yes | 14c | 278.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 67c | 270$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 10c | 265.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ee…b8bfbacked Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -73%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…7aa0backed Yes | 13c | 194.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 7c | 190.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cc…6afbbacked Yes | 17c | 190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 24c | 167.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb8…b468backed Yes | 17c | 117.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9134…3e25backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…8c52backed Yes | 13c | 89.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06a…48c2backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 July 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.