Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77087bbcb95a49f27d261e2379c72f9dac5c9967afb9b5a3102dac9f6c3a5429
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $173,154
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,154 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6259…c692backed Yes | 2c | 8,760$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.77 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 26c | 7,158$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59bb…6d65backed Yes | 3c | 6,087$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 5,390$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c2…8915backed Yes | 7c | 3,821$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…b720backed Yes | 6c | 3,600$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.6 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 2,861$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.19 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d31…53febacked Yes | 3c | 2,796$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…6c61backed Yes | 15c | 2,132$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.81 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +142.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9207…82c0backed Yes | 6c | 2,071$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 50c | 1,883$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$946.66 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3360…955bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa356…2128backed Yes | 4c | 1,668$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a0…22eebacked Yes | 16c | 1,500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 18cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,346$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4176…fd86backed Yes | 3c | 1,244$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,193$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8969…2a77backed Yes | 2c | 1,068$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5a…df23backed Yes | 43c | 1,047$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…accbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,025$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…c69ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -92.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 785.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 5c | 750$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d64…527ebacked Yes | 4c | 714.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…3d4abacked Yes | 6c | 714.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 61c | 640.16$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.5 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…d8e7backed No | 71c | 631.11$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.32 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…a17bbacked Yes | 8c | 605.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfb…cc11backed Yes | 10c | 600.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 588.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaec…e6f6backed Yes | 8c | 560$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed Yes | 11c | 509.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7894…a159backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…f1b3backed No | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 45c | 491.98$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.39 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 13c | 397.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…c377backed Yes | 8c | 392.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d034backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 365.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 131 | 17.6%23 W · 108 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x792f…a740backed Yes | 8c | 347.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa29b…a0b8backed Yes | 45c | 334.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 325.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 49c | 304$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.83 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 49c | 270$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…e629backed Yes | 29c | 241.95$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…1660backed Yes | 5c | 229.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…b4b5backed Yes | 22c | 200$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 13c | 189.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Yes | 23c | 183.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 6c | 178.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…d4bcbacked Yes | 8c | 176.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6685…0622backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd766…07f2backed Yes | 9c | 160.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153b…1cb0backed Yes | 14c | 147.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8872…561dbacked Yes | 34c | 143.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed Yes | 28c | 88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…af51backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ac…be52backed Yes | 25c | 53.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6768…fa71backed Yes | 27c | 51.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8c…01c9backed Yes | 45c | 50.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…f384backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…023cbacked No | 56c | 44.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 68c | 40.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81a5…8c52backed Yes | 38c | 35.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd801…b39bbacked Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…441fbacked No | 66c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 July 13-19?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $48,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 July 13-19?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 July 13-19?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 July 13-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.