NHL · resolved market
Maple Leafs vs. Devils: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33633db02021395a484f42d22e0cff68c1ea494424689ebf13435ba3f58f7e4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cac…1695backed Under | 34c | 1,304$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.58 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 45c | 1,283$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.25 | 218 | 56.4%123 W · 95 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Under | 58c | 917$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.74 | 434 | 56%243 W · 191 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 60c | 607.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.74 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 58c | 448.28$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 444.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.43 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Over | 42c | 385.73$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.05 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 42c | 316.77$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 215 | 55.3%119 W · 96 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff5…f136backed Under | 58c | 293.1$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 43c | 264.09$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.95 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…abb7backed Under | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 42c | 240$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 58c | 172.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 73c | 151.65$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 40c | 123$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.28 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 119$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.17 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 58c | 107.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 42c | 102.23$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 112 | 48.2%54 W · 58 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 45c | 100.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…c8ebbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7669…f58cbacked Over | 40c | 84$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.48 | 83 | 68.7%57 W · 26 L | +12.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 50c | 80.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.47 | 266 | 57.1%152 W · 114 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Under | 58c | 62.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e3…e590backed Under | 44c | 52.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 112 | 33.9%38 W · 74 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd6…16abbacked Under | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 308 | 59.4%183 W · 125 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f1…d867backed Under | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 59 | 69.5%41 W · 18 L | +9.9wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe276…a85bbacked Over | 43c | 48.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Over | 55c | 44.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4eb…05b5backed Over | 41c | 33.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 44c | 25.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Under | 56c | 25.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 598 | 52.3%313 W · 285 L | +34.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…80d0backed Under | 58c | 21.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…7593backed Under | 52c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -38%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 64c | 20.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bb…56e2backed Under | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Maple Leafs vs. Devils: O/U 6.5this page
- Maple Leafs vs. DevilsDevils won
- Maple Leafs vs. Devils: O/U 4.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Devils: O/U 5.5Over won
- Maple Leafs vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Maple Leafs won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.