La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal vs. Real Betis end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33671e6d3d56cd921ac14e3a1adf1722a4f8459c9280aacbe847af336105cf38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,216$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.5 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 5,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,650 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed No | 73c | 4,409$3,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,218.33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 27c | 4,079$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,977.99 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…6f22backed No | 73c | 3,366$2,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 1,918$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.14 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 71c | 1,772$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.79 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…5b91backed Yes | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 1,384$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.34 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 73c | 1,348$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…4fe1backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa93…afc1backed No | 73c | 989.75$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 73c | 912$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.76 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 809$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.65 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 73c | 798$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.54 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14f…186ebacked No | 73c | 770$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 74c | 482.37$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.93 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 27c | 374.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 34c | 350.51$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.31 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 76c | 350$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 8c | 339$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.88 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed Yes | 36c | 296.46$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.15 | 266 | 45.5%121 W · 145 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 76c | 145$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 258 | 72.9%188 W · 70 L | +23.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 77c | 143.72$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 132.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.82 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…3181backed Yes | 23c | 128.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.12 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3435…1913backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.6 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 28c | 115.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 73c | 79.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 350 | 54%189 W · 161 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ca…d8aabacked Yes | 28c | 78.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eac…e064backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 47c | 54.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 432 | 55.6%240 W · 192 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed No | 75c | 27.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 73c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 791 | 33%261 W · 530 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal vs. Real Betis end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Betis win on 2025-10-18?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.