NHL · resolved market
AHL: Hershey Bears vs. Providence Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x339ec3706c6667cf6ba2104a3a02a60629a41cc115953ff6c4bbe3360be20406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Providence Bruinsof Hershey Bears, Providence Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,503 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Providence Bruins | 64c | 7,000$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,489.97 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Hershey Bears | 35c | 982.28$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.18 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 898.77$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.04 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 833.33$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Hershey Bears | 35c | 777$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 663.89$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x026c…8d76backed Hershey Bears | 35c | 420$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9d…8498backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Providence Bruins | 66c | 378$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.52 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…9374backed Hershey Bears | 35c | 328.57$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 320.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.33 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Hershey Bears | 35c | 272.64$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.42 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…e998backed Hershey Bears | 34c | 245.32$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Hershey Bears | 34c | 243$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.62 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Providence Bruins | 64c | 242.4$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 234.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Hershey Bears | 35c | 233.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…bf55backed Providence Bruins | 66c | 201.29$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Providence Bruins | 63c | 140.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d3…bd58backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Hershey Bears | 34c | 133$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.22 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 125.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55cd…8fc1backed Providence Bruins | 65c | 103.08$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hershey Bears | 40c | 72.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee3…612dbacked Hershey Bears | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…4cf7backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Providence Bruins | 66c | 49.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.98 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…2dadbacked Providence Bruins | 66c | 44.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…922bbacked Hershey Bears | 35c | 41.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3268…be2fbacked Hershey Bears | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Hershey Bears | 41c | 38.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 199 | 64.3%128 W · 71 L | +21.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Hershey Bears | 36c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x161f…d3f4backed Hershey Bears | 36c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.27per pick | 51cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Providence Bruins | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.