MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33a82ede70f0e7da718e95ff08b7d0469a9b9a796ad2ede2ce6d7bc3724d7f0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof Arizona Diamondbacks, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,868
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 71c | 401$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.29 | 4,445 | 45%2,001 W · 2,444 L | +87.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 331.55$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.68 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 75c | 277.23$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.31 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 276.29$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.36 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 268.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 5,182 | 54.6%2,829 W · 2,353 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 185$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 151.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Francisco Giants | 72c | 131.49$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca78…fe5dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed San Francisco Giants | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 48.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 423 | 48.2%204 W · 219 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.