MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdebed0ac089261d60485f0cddca0b6aaa80591116618b85cffdd1c6b1538f10f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 12c | 3,718$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.72 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 36c | 2,194$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.76 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed Over | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 1,566$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.84 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 63c | 1,284$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.39 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 63c | 1,005$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.85 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 64c | 884.28$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.46 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 7c | 833.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.68 | 150 | 24.7%37 W · 113 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 34c | 696.48$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.51 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 34c | 512.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.28 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Under | 64c | 310.93$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.93 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 23c | 297.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 23c | 294.98$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 37c | 264$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 2,372 | 49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L | +40.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 59c | 250$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under | 61c | 224.36$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.61 | 125 | 58.4%73 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1821…26a0backed Under | 65c | 187.29$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.03 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 66c | 156.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 66c | 155.12$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 37c | 113.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 72c | 112.4$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 63c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,213 | 49.1%595 W · 618 L | +20.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 66c | 78.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 66c | 78.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 67c | 72.45$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 37c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 44c | 64.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 372 | 51.6%192 W · 180 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 61c | 59.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 62c | 54.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 37c | 50.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 64c | 45.97$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under | 64c | 39.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 747 | 52.5%392 W · 355 L | +17.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e4…d492backed Under | 63c | 38.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…594dbacked Under | 65c | 32.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Over | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,877 | 50.2%943 W · 934 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…5eabbacked Under | 66c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 5,861 | 43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L | -190.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Under | 66c | 23.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.