MLB · resolved market

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36c48890bb5267b9717f563dfc174770d10cedf982edf7e166a3d5a6153c0481

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $33,877
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $36,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,877 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5268…135dbacked Over	47c	4,601$2,152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,152.09	11,653	52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L	+214.1wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Under	52c	4,500$2,355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,145	503	51.9%261 W · 242 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	48c	2,551$1,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,224.63	4,427	47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L	-77.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Over	47c	2,416$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.52	513	53.8%276 W · 237 L	+10.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd0…f442backed Under	55c	2,274$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,023.67	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.43per pick	57cpaid	+78%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec5a…2e90backed Over	47c	2,070$973 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$972.9	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x821d…cf16backed Over	9c	1,762$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.33	174	42%73 W · 101 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ab…3bb3backed Under	53c	1,509$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$709.43	49	63.3%31 W · 18 L	+6.9wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+28.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	60c	1,364$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$541.18	11,102	51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L	+135.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over	48c	1,358$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.47	1,478	51%754 W · 724 L	-19.8wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	52c	1,291$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$623.75	7,078	50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	52c	1,274$662 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$611.33	8,304	46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L	+39.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xcc72…2888backed Over	13c	1,239$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.02	150	24.7%37 W · 113 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	+18%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	53c	969.34$514 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$455.59	3,562	51%1,817 W · 1,745 L	+55.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under	68c	725.51$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.45	3,139	48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L	-10.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	64c	500$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$180	4,120	57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L	+67.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc9e…5a9ebacked Over	52c	480.77$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	356	54.2%193 W · 163 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	30c	462.35$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.77	8,682	52.6%4,563 W · 4,119 L	+505.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Under	52c	399$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.52	1,906	49.3%940 W · 966 L	+25.0wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Over	37c	311$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.39	581	39.4%229 W · 352 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6007…b881backed Under	71c	229$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.52	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.29per pick	71cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d9…84afbacked Under	53c	227$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$106.69	113	46.9%53 W · 60 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b6d…5b1dbacked Under	46c	217.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.39	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	41c	217.3$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.09	2,175	51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L	+54.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9698…2504backed Over	47c	208.34$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.92	106	50%53 W · 53 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	76c	204.56$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	8,484	47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L	+79.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbdf…b8a0backed Under	66c	203.45$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.38	125	58.4%73 W · 52 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…96f8backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96	164	48.2%79 W · 85 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	45c	190.9$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.91	1,697	49.1%834 W · 863 L	+3.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1ea…b845backed Over	53c	188.05$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.59	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	52cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2470…dc4dbacked Under	55c	181.81$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.81	70	54.3%38 W · 32 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5317…9a3bbacked Over	30c	180.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.65	167	39.5%66 W · 101 L	-11.1wins	-0.07per pick	46cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	51c	165.96$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.06	5,567	50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L	+25.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under	73c	160$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	243	49.4%120 W · 123 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed Under	65c	153.85$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.85	80	53.8%43 W · 37 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	45c	151.4$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.13	2,372	49.7%1,179 W · 1,193 L	+40.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Over	50c	136.68$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.71	384	49%188 W · 196 L	-6.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Under	67c	103.61$69 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.46	5,861	43.7%2,562 W · 3,299 L	-190.1wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked Under	53c	99.98$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.49	2,444	50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L	+26.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95f5…779fbacked Over	23c	88.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	1,258	44%553 W · 705 L	-33.4wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a9…68b6backed Over	46c	80$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.8	57	49.1%28 W · 29 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bec…8d52backed Over	46c	79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.34	92	54.3%50 W · 42 L	+9.3wins	+0.10per pick	44cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc15c…6122backed Under	58c	76.44$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.31	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Over	46c	76.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	37c	75.64$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	1,939	44.5%862 W · 1,077 L	-29.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5e…185ebacked Under	75c	73.24$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.31	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	73cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…5124backed Over	48c	62.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	441	49%216 W · 225 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c5…4815backed Over	31c	62.43$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.35	378	56.9%215 W · 163 L	+24.9wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8526…72aabacked Under	43c	59.28$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.79	411	53.8%221 W · 190 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Under	53c	54.1$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.16	918	48.5%445 W · 473 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f12…eeb9backed Under	53c	53.7$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.24	74	51.4%38 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Under	56c	50.77$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.24	1,877	50.2%943 W · 934 L	-6.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Over	31c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	1,975	41.3%815 W · 1,160 L	-27.6wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Under	69c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.63	1,267	58.5%741 W · 526 L	+26.4wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5974…5c32backed Under	46c	47.83$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.83	66	57.6%38 W · 28 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9930…696ebacked Over	49c	45.33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	357	48.5%173 W · 184 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x80ef…6d36backed Over	45c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	40%12 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad6…eab6backed Over	48c	44.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.32	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24ce…da46backed Over	49c	42.56$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	572	52.1%298 W · 274 L	+2.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cf2…ac54backed Over	29c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	115	51.3%59 W · 56 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Under	53c	39.04$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.5	747	52.5%392 W · 355 L	+17.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over	31c	37$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	4,445	45%2,001 W · 2,444 L	+87.5wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe84f…b777backed Over	32c	34.21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	439	51.5%226 W · 213 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under	52c	33.74$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.03	3,036	48%1,458 W · 1,578 L	+16.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ca9…424abacked Under	58c	32.62$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.7	944	56.5%533 W · 411 L	+32.2wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1497…4414backed Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…153bbacked Under	52c	30.47$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.47	154	51.3%79 W · 75 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…2e36backed Under	51c	29.35$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.25	277	48.7%135 W · 142 L	-12.8wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Under	54c	29$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.49	940	69.3%651 W · 289 L	+93.5wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+14%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9491…5eabbacked Under	69c	28.98$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.98	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.21per pick	63cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	63c	26.78$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.91	9,891	46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L	+40.7wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	462	58%268 W · 194 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Under	69c	25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.75	608	59.2%360 W · 248 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under	67c	19.57$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.46	1,049	58.4%613 W · 436 L	+21.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event