MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e711087d1463f773e8ae7167865dca14e67ca21275a041063ab20ef3eae1191
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,896
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x075d…58c1backed Over | 56c | 8,229$4,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,569 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 3,559$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.44 | 7,078 | 50.5%3,576 W · 3,502 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 57c | 3,312$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.56 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 45c | 3,075$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,692.28 | 503 | 51.9%261 W · 242 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,932$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.2 | 8,304 | 46.2%3,840 W · 4,464 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,837$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.71 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 57c | 1,787$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.97 | 4,120 | 57.6%2,375 W · 1,745 L | +67.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 45c | 1,748$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.24 | 11,653 | 52.8%6,157 W · 5,496 L | +214.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbac…38d0backed Over | 57c | 1,255$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.4 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 44c | 798$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.87 | 1,906 | 49.3%940 W · 966 L | +25.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 27c | 767.11$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 45c | 604.2$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.31 | 1,697 | 49.1%834 W · 863 L | +3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 584.74$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.69 | 9,891 | 46.4%4,594 W · 5,297 L | +40.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 568$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.08 | 3,562 | 51%1,817 W · 1,745 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 59c | 476.58$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.67 | 2,175 | 51.5%1,121 W · 1,054 L | +54.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 33c | 410.25$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 581 | 39.4%229 W · 352 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Over | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 55c | 346.41$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 3,139 | 48.2%1,514 W · 1,625 L | -10.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 26c | 233.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.77 | 1,979 | 53.2%1,052 W · 927 L | +45.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 164 | 48.2%79 W · 85 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Over | 55c | 182.95$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 57c | 178.67$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.74 | 1,267 | 58.5%741 W · 526 L | +26.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 57c | 176.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 533 | 57.6%307 W · 226 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 150 | 24.7%37 W · 113 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 75c | 134.97$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 47c | 128.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.26 | 471 | 45.9%216 W · 255 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 122.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.48 | 11,102 | 51.5%5,715 W · 5,387 L | +135.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b89…9f72backed Over | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 114 | 55.3%63 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 46c | 119$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.87 | 8,484 | 47.9%4,062 W · 4,422 L | +79.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 2,444 | 50.1%1,225 W · 1,219 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 41c | 98.02$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1,258 | 44%553 W · 705 L | -33.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…68a0backed Over | 57c | 92$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 57c | 91.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 462 | 58%268 W · 194 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 57c | 91.84$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 608 | 59.2%360 W · 248 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 85.13$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…9d5bbacked Under | 45c | 81.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 44c | 74.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 439 | 51.5%226 W · 213 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 57c | 71.42$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 1,049 | 58.4%613 W · 436 L | +21.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 46c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.58 | 918 | 48.5%445 W · 473 L | +10.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Under | 76c | 63.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 49c | 62.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 34c | 56.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1,939 | 44.5%862 W · 1,077 L | -29.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 45c | 53.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +9.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x55ac…94bcbacked Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac7…37d8backed Over | 56c | 47.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Over | 56c | 46.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 357 | 48.5%173 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf2…ac54backed Under | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2b…f6d8backed Over | 61c | 34.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…6122backed Under | 37c | 33.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 45c | 33.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 664 | 49.2%327 W · 337 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…2e36backed Under | 42c | 30.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 46c | 28.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 940 | 69.3%651 W · 289 L | +93.5wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Over | 52c | 26.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 174 | 42%73 W · 101 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaae2…2383backed Over | 57c | 26.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37fb…d4dabacked Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.