MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12bf10bd15a23c8b32fc95cb5ad7c60898dc0cfe3cbc9cfb54311583340f34b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8239…d9a3backed Over | 51c | 9,857$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 49c | 5,000$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550 | 1,310 | 50.2%658 W · 652 L | +19.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 1,866$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933 | 4,427 | 47.5%2,101 W · 2,326 L | -77.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 50c | 987.05$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.53 | 816 | 47.4%387 W · 429 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 976.43$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.74 | 5,567 | 50.5%2,812 W · 2,755 L | +25.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 880$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.94 | 1,478 | 51%754 W · 724 L | -19.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 50c | 755.18$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.41 | 483 | 48.4%234 W · 249 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 620 | 52.7%327 W · 293 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 50c | 408.16$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.08 | 581 | 53%308 W · 273 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 49c | 376.23$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.07 | 1,548 | 48.6%753 W · 795 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbae…9720backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a00…59e2backed Over | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Over | 51c | 71.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 260 | 51.5%134 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 69.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 872 | 54.2%473 W · 399 L | +26.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 50c | 59.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.53 | 249 | 48.2%120 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8974…fc7cbacked Over | 50c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddfc…cd9ebacked Over | 51c | 40.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 37.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 3,036 | 48%1,458 W · 1,578 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…34cabacked Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 384 | 49%188 W · 196 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 51c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 322 | 54%174 W · 148 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5this page
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Under won
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco GiantsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.