NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x33f2bd09365c107bf0d500d1e4bfaad7c216cc465858b479b8e094884bf22393
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 52c | 10,225$5,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,908 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 48c | 8,240$3,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,955.2 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 8,019$4,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,012.48 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 6,086$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Over | 45c | 5,520$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Over | 45c | 4,500$2,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,025 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 55c | 3,125$1,709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.84 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Over | 44c | 3,000$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320 | 180 | 47.8%86 W · 94 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 2,711$1,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,193.32 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 50c | 2,024$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.24 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 45c | 1,840$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 821$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.08 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 48c | 516.6$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…86ecbacked Over | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 450$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 56c | 447$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 55c | 420$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…1d44backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb307…be4abacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Over | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ed…7971backed Over | 53c | 110$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 107$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…bc50backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 48c | 99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bac…cf90backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Over | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…3a31backed Over | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61be…5e3cbacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Over | 47c | 29.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -6.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…eb14backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Suns won
- Timberwolves vs. SunsSuns won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.