TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Sunsof Timberwolves, Suns
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,150
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,201

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,150 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Suns50c8,870$4,435 inWon+$4,4351,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Suns49c8,399$4,116 inWon+$4,283.722,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves50c8,000$4,000 inLost-$4,0001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e5a…8f58backed Timberwolves51c7,168$3,656 inLost-$3,655.586241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Timberwolves51c6,000$3,060 inLost-$3,06037557.6%216 W · 159 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Suns49c6,000$2,940 inWon+$3,06066250.8%336 W · 326 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves49c5,823$2,845 inLost-$2,845.469,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Suns50c3,000$1,500 inWon+$1,50082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Suns51c1,850$944 inWon+$906.540243.8%176 W · 226 L-1.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Timberwolves51c980.39$500 inLost-$50028448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Suns50c537.22$268 inWon+$2692,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Timberwolves50c500$248 inLost-$24833743.6%147 W · 190 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns50c393$197 inWon+$196.51,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves49c287.94$140 inLost-$140.452,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves48c264.1$127 inLost-$126.528,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Timberwolves51c196.08$100 inLost-$1001,25948.7%613 W · 646 L+1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Suns48c119.61$57 inWon+$62.1637850.3%190 W · 188 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4f1…f0e8backed Suns50c100$50 inWon+$508155.6%45 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc7…908dbacked Suns51c99.35$51 inWon+$48.6816650%83 W · 83 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Suns51c97.06$49 inWon+$47.5615448.7%75 W · 79 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b34…6296backed Suns55c91.13$50 inWon+$41.1310253.9%55 W · 47 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0e2…31e4backed Suns55c90.91$50 inWon+$40.9111251.8%58 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…e601backed Suns51c89.35$46 inWon+$43.7813550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc938…af43backed Suns50c67$34 inWon+$33.57648.7%37 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Timberwolves51c60$31 inLost-$30.631947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Timberwolves50c55.82$28 inLost-$27.913,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x778d…8779backed Suns51c54.9$28 inWon+$26.92254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves49c53.43$26 inLost-$26.173,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Timberwolves50c50$25 inLost-$2532750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cba…3e55backed Suns52c36$19 inWon+$17.281127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-48.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd67a…304cbacked Timberwolves50c28$14 inLost-$143046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc609…f29abacked Suns56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.795341.5%22 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves50c25.79$13 inLost-$12.796,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe9…a400backed Timberwolves50c23$12 inLost-$11.52857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Timberwolves50c21.92$11 inLost-$10.924,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbee6…67d2backed Timberwolves50c20$10 inLost-$101637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58c1…1c3dbacked Suns50c20$10 inWon+$101637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.