NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e0c8a3c995af06d4948ee29d919f078fd7b8bad1c0578f85d85d798abf1721
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Timberwolves, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,992
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Suns | 49c | 3,333$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,699.82 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913a…f556backed Timberwolves | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 50cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 45c | 2,455$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.27 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8331…965abacked Timberwolves | 55c | 2,200$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 54c | 2,083$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128.32 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Suns | 49c | 1,584$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.67 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 1,514$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.1 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Suns | 46c | 1,076$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.38 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Timberwolves | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 47c | 797$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.57 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Suns | 46c | 761$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.94 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 48c | 473.56$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.25 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Suns | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Suns | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Suns | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a83…09f0backed Timberwolves | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Suns | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…38cebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Suns | 49c | 132.65$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Timberwolves | 53c | 127.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.83 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves | 51c | 114$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.14 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Timberwolves | 55c | 110$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…f498backed Timberwolves | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…b8a8backed Suns | 47c | 108.51$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…e0a6backed Timberwolves | 56c | 106.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Suns | 49c | 106.24$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Suns | 48c | 99.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.99 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Suns | 48c | 99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Timberwolves | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f80…d2ecbacked Suns | 49c | 89.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…1121backed Timberwolves | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 909 | 57.6%524 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Suns | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Suns | 51c | 78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 344 | 51.5%177 W · 167 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…4d8fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 68.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 659 | 50.8%335 W · 324 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9f…d42cbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x061e…81e0backed Timberwolves | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…34e3backed Suns | 46c | 54.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 205 | 42.9%88 W · 117 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab2…5735backed Timberwolves | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34da…367fbacked Suns | 48c | 51.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Timberwolves | 55c | 50.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Suns | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 426 | 40.4%172 W · 254 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Timberwolves | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Suns | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Suns | 49c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 1,028 | 48.5%499 W · 529 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Suns | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 234 | 45.7%107 W · 127 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Suns | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5729…c366backed Timberwolves | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Timberwolves | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…a75fbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Suns | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Timberwolves | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a5…1633backed Suns | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 157 | 52.2%82 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Suns | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Suns | 49c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 717 | 47.6%341 W · 376 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Suns | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b4…e064backed Timberwolves | 56c | 31.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Timberwolves | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb52…8046backed Timberwolves | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Suns | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 271 | 50.2%136 W · 135 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Suns | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Timberwolves | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Suns won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Suns won
- Timberwolves vs. SunsSuns won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Suns: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.