TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$30,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,301 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf32f…eef8backed Yes5c2,013$100 inLost-$100.341030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae7c…487ebacked Yes10c1,561$150 inLost-$150.3112232.8%40 W · 82 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c954.66$78 inLost-$78.062,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c743$65 inLost-$64.6476821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes2c699.97$13 inLost-$13.425617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes4c668.93$27 inLost-$26.762727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed No80c653$522 inWon+$130.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-58.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4e…d6edbacked Yes15c635.93$98 inLost-$97.944440.9%18 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c474.02$30 inLost-$29.611,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0482…6b0abacked Yes3c472.37$15 inLost-$15.061330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked Yes9c472.11$40 inLost-$40.4310330.1%31 W · 72 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes6c416.67$25 inLost-$2526411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes11c415.65$44 inLost-$444798.6%41 W · 438 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafbb…9213backed Yes9c374.2$34 inLost-$33.682138.1%8 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+118.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa490…bf7ebacked Yes12c333.33$40 inLost-$405910.2%6 W · 53 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312a…66b8backed Yes10c325$33 inLost-$32.5527920.4%57 W · 222 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes13c313.86$40 inLost-$40.414429.5%13 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes12c244.27$28 inLost-$28.1865623.2%152 W · 504 L+1.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes20c232$46 inLost-$46.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked Yes20c218$44 inLost-$43.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes13c204.62$27 inLost-$27.455240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6f9…fd9dbacked Yes13c203.63$26 inLost-$264714.9%7 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Yes20c203$41 inLost-$40.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c197$24 inLost-$23.772,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes7c173.66$12 inLost-$12.16849.5%8 W · 76 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+105%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5faf…7217backed Yes9c145.68$13 inLost-$13.112339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes26c141.23$37 inLost-$36.5950828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5f…937ebacked Yes10c136.67$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes10c101.05$10 inLost-$10.0542719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes15c100$15 inLost-$157915.2%12 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1062539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes11c99.99$11 inLost-$111,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes11c90.91$10 inLost-$105915.3%9 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd39…b4c1backed Yes12c81.47$10 inLost-$10.1933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-38.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebd…c462backed Yes16c64.8$10 inLost-$10.144912.2%6 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.