Fifa International · resolved market
Ecuador to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x341a32173fa3d0506d7f410285e1ba7506e603b9d092dd632cafaaee76c76c44
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 4,224$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.82 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 3,100$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.09 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 2,758$2,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.36 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ac…4781backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 525 | 22.5%118 W · 407 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…d109backed Yes | 21c | 2,043$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.1 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed Yes | 21c | 2,042$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.8 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 79c | 1,716$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.41 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 21c | 1,710$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.01 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 79c | 1,675$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.67 | 319 | 45.5%145 W · 174 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 71c | 1,427$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.82 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 76c | 913.95$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.87 | 420 | 43.1%181 W · 239 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 21c | 638$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.66 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb79…47a9backed Yes | 17c | 595.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 459.1$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.53 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 24c | 404$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 74c | 352.19$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…163abacked Yes | 20c | 263.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 79c | 243$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 28c | 242$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.76 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea3d…6bdebacked Yes | 27c | 214.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 79c | 170$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 866 | 56.4%488 W · 378 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 79c | 169.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 1,151 | 58.5%673 W · 478 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 79c | 101.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.26 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27dc…3573backed Yes | 26c | 101$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 70c | 99.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb6…223cbacked Yes | 22c | 91.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 27c | 66.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7f…cc9bbacked Yes | 21c | 63.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 69c | 60.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 722 | 47.2%341 W · 381 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 197 | 60.4%119 W · 78 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1be…76eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc155…e36bbacked No | 80c | 32.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 785 | 59.7%469 W · 316 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 80c | 32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 76c | 29.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 244 | 43%105 W · 139 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ecuador to win the second half?this page
- Mexico to win the second half?No won
- Mexico vs. Ecuador: Second half draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.