South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Millonarios FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3421bedde3cb2ebaaac00a2899501c39e93e9c539d0d967615fd9ea439c5b126
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 4,191$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.6 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Yes | 53c | 3,774$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 46c | 1,590$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.06 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 1,116$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.94 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…0d22backed No | 75c | 1,074$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 25c | 1,010$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.3 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd54b…f03bbacked No | 73c | 906.22$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…2b82backed No | 73c | 617.6$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 47c | 588.94$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.41 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 37c | 491.05$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 6c | 486.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 66c | 427$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.82 | 49 | 67.3%33 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked No | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 45c | 380$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 48c | 370.37$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 72c | 357.24$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.76 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No | 20c | 307.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.26 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 48c | 256$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.88 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 15c | 233.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bad…4d53backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Yes | 29c | 155.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.17 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac03…f019backed Yes | 57c | 121.92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.92 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…6fcfbacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 22c | 95.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…df76backed Yes | 73c | 68.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x569b…c66ebacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 187 | 43.9%82 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe65d…fa86backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 52c | 66.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 28c | 63.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.55 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb61e…a10bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 51.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92a…31ebbacked Yes | 62c | 48.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.16 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…06b1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b5…a0d7backed Yes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0369…c2ebbacked Yes | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 38c | 35.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4813…988fbacked No | 75c | 32.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fd…4df6backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked No | 75c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d95…82e8backed No | 75c | 23.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked No | 55c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Yes | 58c | 20.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Millonarios FC vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-04-28?No won
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.