World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34312da2a227fd9b28af68ea57cd36db8a584420c66ac2a82d287bc0700cea36
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5005…d015backed Yes | 11c | 2,835$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…db7cbacked Yes | 16c | 880.48$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…4533backed Yes | 24c | 718$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe373…3a51backed Yes | 12c | 694.1$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +175%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f0…fe05backed Yes | 16c | 609.99$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.6 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238a…a504backed Yes | 9c | 562.54$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +245.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 13c | 468.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7639…e89cbacked Yes | 74c | 458.28$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.19 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe510…b0f0backed Yes | 15c | 383.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…ea8bbacked No | 74c | 305.87$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.61 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 40cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…ac4bbacked Yes | 4c | 299$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 7c | 293.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 193 | 15.5%30 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 222.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff9e…56a1backed Yes | 74c | 198.05$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 192.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 10c | 112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 146 | 37%54 W · 92 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 16c | 82.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 27c | 64.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?this page
- Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?Yes won
- Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.