World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x683b5c2fa00d7c580c9c9145d3edd0d63a99bc9484c62b9072546c2c58bc048d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 25c | 1,394$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.18 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…34b6backed No | 75c | 1,010$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.83 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 10c | 319.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 26c | 315.56$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5653backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 13c | 278.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…6ce5backed No | 76c | 261.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 261.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 25c | 234$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 74c | 125$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 123.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 12c | 87.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 80c | 57.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868c…1703backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…1c62backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce54…c5fabacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 76c | 16.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?this page
- Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?Yes won
- Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.