World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ecdee3578b68ea3e045f6eaecd40816c8a6796e30ab1978dec151be1492442e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed No | 68c | 1,331$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.79 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…a7f8backed Yes | 26c | 964.21$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.87 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +316.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…3912backed Yes | 8c | 540.17$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…f1d6backed Yes | 21c | 536.29$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 68c | 522.99$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.47 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 25c | 485.52$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 29c | 437.75$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 24c | 414.86$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…d05abacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 363.67$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b5…957fbacked Yes | 29c | 348.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…e0a3backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…9c6cbacked Yes | 47c | 197.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.36 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…d641backed Yes | 24c | 149.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…1c62backed Yes | 24c | 142.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…76debacked Yes | 22c | 133.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 76c | 114.68$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 109$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb1…4547backed No | 80c | 108.91$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 28c | 105.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 104$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 59c | 103$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 74.13$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 75c | 57.52$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…3a15backed Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 74c | 50.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 76c | 43.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bf…3387backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…6754backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 38.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ca…4419backed No | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 77cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec4…cfc8backed No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x561b…9b6cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?this page
- Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?Yes won
- Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.