World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00d78c0cb6596a2ae1ab1123857018912da1d8c0da4b8520a15d6480a54928f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 12c | 714.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.81 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c0c…4aacbacked Yes | 15c | 463.79$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…f1d6backed Yes | 9c | 449.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 9c | 411.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 6c | 365.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…4f9cbacked Yes | 14c | 345.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes | 65c | 300$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 133 | 34.6%46 W · 87 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…d641backed Yes | 15c | 237.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 235.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 10c | 235.01$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4877…e0a3backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 36c | 197.68$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.29 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 192$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391b…3179backed Yes | 13c | 133.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad92…9b41backed Yes | 58c | 120.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +171.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 7.1%15 W · 196 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 254 | 3.5%9 W · 245 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb044…d05abacked Yes | 24c | 99.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e60…da40backed Yes | 25c | 61.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04bc…76debacked Yes | 20c | 55.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 75c | 50.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…c402backed Yes | 74c | 40.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…6237backed No | 57c | 19.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?this page
- Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?Yes won
- Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.