World Politics · resolved market
Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d2d04eb2e93642b7acaadcc22042ea13c20ba3fbb9f623dc28f29a757790298
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 30c | 936.6$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.68 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 6c | 506.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.15 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…4155backed Yes | 46c | 397.8$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.4 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 363.7$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…6146backed Yes | 6c | 242.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +248.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x287a…9ee2backed Yes | 24c | 213.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +8.0wins | +0.21per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 146.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868c…1703backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes | 30c | 112.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.08 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 22c | 107.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Yes | 21c | 95.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 75c | 93.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0760…ea8bbacked Yes | 23c | 82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 40cpaid | +161.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 70$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a1…f1d6backed Yes | 38c | 61.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 60.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 57.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 51.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d5…2c0ebacked Yes | 31c | 48.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 28.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 24.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 70c | 21.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…ae9bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Democratic Party win 12 upper-level local government races?this page
- Will the Democratic Party win 10 or fewer upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 11 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 14 upper-level local government races?No won
- Will the Democratic Party win 15 upper-level local government races?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.