Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Fils
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x343385adca931139af57429e2775bdb6f4d0b022dc1f6d99749ca2abd19b0f72
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnerof Sinner, Fils
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,166
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,166 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Fils | 25c | 401.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked Fils | 24c | 380.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.31 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Sinner | 75c | 369.2$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796c…49dbbacked Fils | 31c | 249.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Sinner | 76c | 206.58$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.58 | 176 | 54.5%96 W · 80 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Fils | 23c | 199.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 120 | 25.8%31 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Fils | 24c | 192.6$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 184 | 30.4%56 W · 128 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…8129backed Sinner | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Sinner | 76c | 136.18$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…5058backed Sinner | 78c | 120$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Sinner | 76c | 119.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Sinner | 76c | 93.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sinner | 68c | 91.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fils | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Fils | 22c | 68.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…dab3backed Sinner | 78c | 65.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…b42dbacked Sinner | 79c | 62.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fils | 21c | 54.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Sinner | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…b8c3backed Fils | 24c | 44.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Sinner | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 278 | 71.6%199 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…36c8backed Sinner | 77c | 21.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Sinner | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Sinner | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Sinner | 79c | 18.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs Filsthis page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur FilsJannik Sinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.