TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jannik Sinnerof Jannik Sinner, Arthur Fils
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$891,847
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,007,272

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,847 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6f8b…01aabacked Arthur Fils16c111,020$17,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,488.688429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Arthur Fils7c48,623$3,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,572.2823731.6%75 W · 162 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b0…fc67backed Arthur Fils6c33,747$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.6431234.6%108 W · 204 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Arthur Fils7c28,656$2,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,114.468,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Arthur Fils15c21,829$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,279.6511941.2%49 W · 70 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Arthur Fils4c16,550$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.8657939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7402…8020backed Arthur Fils13c16,538$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.637526.7%20 W · 55 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56e9…79c6backed Arthur Fils6c16,483$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9896041.7%25 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf63a…90e6backed Arthur Fils7c15,038$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004932.7%16 W · 33 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f75…af7ebacked Arthur Fils17c14,540$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50010761.7%66 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Arthur Fils4c13,176$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.011,2068%96 W · 1,110 L+17.2wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+80.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x153a…9d6dbacked Arthur Fils15c13,000$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,95028338.9%110 W · 173 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbfb…84a6backed Arthur Fils7c11,987$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.6712814.1%18 W · 110 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Arthur Fils8c10,947$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.2287.1%2 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-80.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc4…1f41backed Arthur Fils18c10,880$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-59.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Arthur Fils5c10,678$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.611215.2%17 W · 95 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Arthur Fils15c8,933$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.2518315.8%29 W · 154 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed Arthur Fils5c8,347$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5227431.8%87 W · 187 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec8…762abacked Arthur Fils3c7,000$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2396139.3%24 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9301…bf02backed Arthur Fils18c6,500$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,170425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76cc…fbbcbacked Arthur Fils16c6,401$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,024.1913427.6%37 W · 97 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Arthur Fils16c6,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030740.7%125 W · 182 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Arthur Fils15c6,082$934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.622,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc128…2217backed Arthur Fils2c5,824$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13010655.7%59 W · 47 L+13.2wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Arthur Fils15c5,604$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.6678536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a2a…420abacked Arthur Fils1c5,487$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick23cpaid-75.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Arthur Fils5c5,116$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.743353.6%232 W · 201 L+32.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Arthur Fils16c4,601$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.3549447.2%233 W · 261 L+12.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Arthur Fils16c4,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.9942839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…5ce3backed Arthur Fils14c3,958$558 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.264136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05c7…4421backed Arthur Fils5c3,957$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.59345.9%2 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-72.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Arthur Fils10c3,613$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.041,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aaf…09afbacked Arthur Fils16c3,562$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.942050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa661…af49backed Arthur Fils5c3,000$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15311248.2%54 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Arthur Fils15c2,771$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.721,42155%782 W · 639 L+23.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked Arthur Fils6c2,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15015252.6%80 W · 72 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Arthur Fils5c2,599$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.757,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18c6…a7c6backed Arthur Fils5c2,321$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1094623.9%11 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-39.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Arthur Fils16c2,162$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.851,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf692…dd55backed Arthur Fils5c2,152$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa363…46c8backed Arthur Fils15c2,132$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.0322821.1%48 W · 180 L-0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ed…673ebacked Arthur Fils16c2,081$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333850%4 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Arthur Fils6c2,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11445036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Arthur Fils6c1,758$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.641,86544.7%834 W · 1,031 L+36.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed Arthur Fils13c1,522$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.71936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6919…cc07backed Arthur Fils7c1,521$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.15724.6%14 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-25.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Arthur Fils15c1,520$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6628…05aebacked Arthur Fils16c1,500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23513038.5%50 W · 80 L-0.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Arthur Fils15c1,400$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21059348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Arthur Fils4c1,359$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5084736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c3a…eb16backed Arthur Fils16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007320.5%15 W · 58 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Arthur Fils16c1,250$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,50435.1%528 W · 976 L+12.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da5…8b2ebacked Arthur Fils16c1,224$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.815863.8%37 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Arthur Fils16c1,216$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.657321.8%125 W · 448 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…a5e3backed Arthur Fils5c1,202$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.9438739.3%152 W · 235 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff1b…5dfdbacked Arthur Fils16c1,181$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189160%0 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf96d…20bebacked Arthur Fils4c1,175$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4748214.1%68 W · 414 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5a…07b6backed Arthur Fils18c1,056$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19025240.5%102 W · 150 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe6…8192backed Arthur Fils16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16024840.7%101 W · 147 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+19.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked Arthur Fils16c999.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011538.3%44 W · 71 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-2.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9712…0c47backed Arthur Fils15c999.98$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508344.6%37 W · 46 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Arthur Fils15c999.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.993821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa0b…9672backed Arthur Fils15c999.96$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9923126%60 W · 171 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bef…485bbacked Arthur Fils6c989.55$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.522733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-27.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fa5…63afbacked Arthur Fils3c958.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257810.3%8 W · 70 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10df…2206backed Arthur Fils12c933.33$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810825.9%28 W · 80 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Arthur Fils7c924.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0435932.6%117 W · 242 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf38…848bbacked Arthur Fils16c888$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.084156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x96cb…75cbbacked Arthur Fils16c875$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14011426.3%30 W · 84 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Arthur Fils8c822.78$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e48…9c5fbacked Arthur Fils16c800$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796c…49dbbacked Arthur Fils8c736.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.618448.8%41 W · 43 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Arthur Fils9c719.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.312,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5370…84adbacked Arthur Fils17c705.88$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1206650%33 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe4…e51fbacked Arthur Fils16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x901b…59efbacked Arthur Fils5c699.99$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3629519.7%58 W · 237 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe70…ee21backed Arthur Fils16c670$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Arthur Fils16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007163.4%45 W · 26 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf95a…d895backed Arthur Fils16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018932.3%61 W · 128 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cee…0d1ebacked Arthur Fils16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018849.5%93 W · 95 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Arthur Fils16c616$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.561,02833.6%345 W · 683 L-3.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Arthur Fils16c612.38$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.982,85439.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L-83.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c6…0ebebacked Arthur Fils4c607$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.281323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c03…5c25backed Arthur Fils16c606.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$971040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebde…1de0backed Arthur Fils8c600$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5089134.3%306 W · 585 L-40.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Arthur Fils15c597.22$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.083,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed Arthur Fils11c590.56$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6516349.7%81 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d0…17a6backed Arthur Fils14c571.87$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.6811940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Arthur Fils12c570.38$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.715531.6%49 W · 106 L-9.0wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Arthur Fils16c562.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9037351.2%191 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1be4…d8edbacked Arthur Fils5c538.96$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Arthur Fils15c526.23$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9375748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb526…613abacked Arthur Fils3c515.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.192937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b43…9e23backed Arthur Fils13c514.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6819531.3%61 W · 134 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-25.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…bf48backed Arthur Fils8c506.25$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3924931.3%78 W · 171 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91c8…3ba8backed Arthur Fils5c492.16$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.611850%9 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+23.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x956d…b750backed Arthur Fils15c487.53$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1310757.9%62 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9961…edcfbacked Arthur Fils6c478.76$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.825030%15 W · 35 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cef…5ea3backed Arthur Fils17c400$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$682142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Arthur Fils12c386.37$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.844,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.