Tennis · resolved market
Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8421f8e2681c3d633c875cf1aa5b52ecedc33c7d606735b009b524c6986b011
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4738…4687backed Under | 51c | 1,951$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.52 | 373 | 51.2%191 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Over | 52c | 1,362$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.73 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde1d…c645backed Over | 53c | 849.48$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…325bbacked Over | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 132 | 37.9%50 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Over | 52c | 485.35$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 52c | 483.23$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 185 | 43.2%80 W · 105 L | -13.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…5874backed Over | 53c | 466.04$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 48c | 458.52$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.9 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under | 48c | 420.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.91 | 996 | 49.5%493 W · 503 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Over | 52c | 412.19$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.79 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7e…cbbdbacked Under | 50c | 390.4$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 381.26$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.45 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 47c | 342.44$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.48 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Over | 51c | 305.88$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 606 | 41.6%252 W · 354 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over | 51c | 293.21$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under | 49c | 225$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 452 | 51.8%234 W · 218 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Under | 52c | 219.91$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.68 | 497 | 52.3%260 W · 237 L | +28.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 48c | 216.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…5cecbacked Under | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 49c | 181$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Under | 47c | 150.93$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 1,102 | 52.2%575 W · 527 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 49c | 130.77$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 47c | 111$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.6 | 7,183 | 49.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L | +112.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 52c | 109.51$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 341 | 54.3%185 W · 156 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 362 | 61.6%223 W · 139 L | +40.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…7afabacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 50c | 91.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 52c | 88.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 2,087 | 54.1%1,130 W · 957 L | +64.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 54c | 83.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 236 | 53.4%126 W · 110 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 48c | 63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 2,043 | 47.8%977 W · 1,066 L | +14.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…463dbacked Over | 51c | 58.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0806…4adabacked Over | 51c | 56.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x925e…90a2backed Over | 51c | 48.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 49c | 42.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…9717backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda6…84c5backed Under | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 52c | 39.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 427 | 45.7%195 W · 232 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 227 | 55.1%125 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 52c | 19.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed Under | 52c | 19.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 455 | 49.7%226 W · 229 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5this page
- Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur FilsJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs FilsSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.