Tennis · resolved market
Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05e16a1aabcd104905ac315d09b344cd9f720a5e1402ae5d50f907243c52c00b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7055…9717backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 591.31$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.02 | 222 | 52.3%116 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over 2.5 | 32c | 574$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.02 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under 2.5 | 67c | 456.32$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.59 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 27c | 322.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Over 2.5 | 32c | 304.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 873 | 37.1%324 W · 549 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…c74dbacked Over 2.5 | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 180 | 53.9%97 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…ac88backed Under 2.5 | 68c | 283.84$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.5 | 13c | 236.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Over 2.5 | 33c | 210.79$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over 2.5 | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under 2.5 | 66c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 148.83$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 359 | 32.6%117 W · 242 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…53c3backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 79.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x636d…0440backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 75.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Under 2.5 | 70c | 71.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -25%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…0b89backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 62.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 48.52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fe…09c9backed Over 2.5 | 31c | 48.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 220 | 49.5%109 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 2.5 | 68c | 47.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over 2.5 | 30c | 38.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under 2.5 | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 134 | 58.2%78 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Under 2.5 | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 278 | 71.6%199 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 25.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 163 | 58.9%96 W · 67 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…760dbacked Under 2.5 | 71c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Under 2.5 | 71c | 20.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 123 | 54.5%67 W · 56 L | +13.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 18.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40e1…65a4backed Under 2.5 | 71c | 16.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jannik Sinner vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur FilsJannik Sinner won
- Set 1 Winner: Sinner vs FilsSinner won
- Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fils (+1.5)Sinner won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Sinner vs. Fils: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.