CS2 · resolved market
Will FURIA make a roster change before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3435121be894256832ea72d7d4f96de7933bb136aef72d5c8ec3d432fc103492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56c3…e785backed Yes | 9c | 935.27$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 10c | 823.51$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -9.5wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 4c | 776.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 37 | 5.4%2 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 14c | 621$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 13c | 575.76$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 485.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.25 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…c92cbacked Yes | 9c | 479$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 11c | 455.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 10c | 293.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 14c | 286.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…4127backed Yes | 5c | 285$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 13c | 267.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.81 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b3…a386backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…70b9backed Yes | 13c | 174.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc4…7760backed Yes | 13c | 174.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f40…df2dbacked Yes | 10c | 171.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae05…7635backed Yes | 9c | 163.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fe…7061backed Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked Yes | 12c | 148$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 12c | 147.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 13c | 128.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 13c | 126.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…7ce7backed Yes | 13c | 126.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…b205backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cc…5ec9backed Yes | 13c | 110$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0b…8c5ebacked Yes | 15c | 95.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e63…134fbacked Yes | 12c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 12c | 93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2edd…4188backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.